| 當期課號 |
7047 |
Course Number |
7047 |
| 授課教師 |
胡天鐘 |
Instructor |
HWU,TIAN JONG |
| 中文課名 |
商情預測與分析 |
Course Name |
Bussiness Forecasting and Analysis |
| 開課單位 |
企業管理系碩士班二A |
Department |
|
| 修習別 |
選修 |
Required/Elective |
Elective |
| 學分數 |
3 |
Credits |
3 |
| 課程目標 |
本課程旨在訓練學生具有商情的辨識、資料的收集、預測方法的選擇、套裝軟體的使用、解釋及說明其預測結果等能力。 |
Objectives |
The course provides students to have the skills which include the ability to recognize opportunities, collect data, choice appropriate forecasting methods, use the package, and communicate and implement the results. |
| 教材 |
商情預測 作者:謝明琪 出版者:國立空中大學 |
Teaching Materials |
Business Forecasting |
| 成績評量方式 |
期中考(30%)、期末報告(35%)、平常成績(35%) |
Grading |
Midterm exam.(30%)
Term report (35%)
The rest of grades(35%) will be based on homeworks and quizs.
Grades are based on performance. No curves planned
Performance standard:
Excellent ≧ 90
Better ≧80
Good ≧ 70
Ordinary ≧ 60
fail < 60 |
| 教師網頁 |
|
| 教學內容 |
1.商情預測導論
2.預測理論的基礎
3.德菲法
4.市場研究法
5.經驗法
6.計量經濟模型法
7.投入產出模型法
8.經濟景氣指標法
9.移動平均法
10.指數平滑法
11.時間數列分析(含ARIMA預測法)
12.個案分析與討論 |
Syllabus |
1.Introduction to business forecasting
2.Basic theory of forecasting
3.Delphi method
4.Methods of market research
5.Experience Rule
6.Econometric Models
7.Input-Output Model
8.Monitoring indicators
9.Moving Average Method
10.Exponential Smoothing Method
11.Time Series Analysis(ARIMA models)
12.Case study |