| 當期課號 |
1314 |
Course Number |
1314 |
| 授課教師 |
王敏 |
Instructor |
WANG,MIN |
| 中文課名 |
決策分析 |
Course Name |
Decision Analysis |
| 開課單位 |
工業工程與管理系(四日)四A |
Department |
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| 修習別 |
選修 |
Required/Elective |
Elective |
| 學分數 |
3 |
Credits |
3 |
| 課程目標 |
本課之內容為決策分析導論, 介紹常用決策分析之方法來幫助決策者如何在不確定的情況下釐定決策. |
Objectives |
This course is an introduction to decision analysis. Several decision analysis techniques will be provided in this course to help decision maker to make decision under uncertainty. |
| 教材 |
Robert T. Clemen and Terence Reilly, Making Hard Decisions: with DecisionTools, Duxbury, 2001 (ISBN:0534365973) |
Teaching Materials |
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| 成績評量方式 |
出席: 10%;
作業: 40%;
期中: 25%;
期末: 25% |
Grading |
Attendance: 10%;
Homework: 40%;
Midterm: 25%;
Final: 25% |
| 教師網頁 |
|
| 教學內容 |
1. 決策分析導論
2. 不確定狀況與機率
3. 機率理論
4. 不確定狀況下的決策
5. 機率的相依與獨立性
6. 面對風險的態度
7. 效用函數
8. 決策分析的循環
9. 敏感度分析及修正決策樹
10. 多指標效益函數 |
Syllabus |
1. Introduction to decision analysis.
2. Uncertainty and probability.
3. Review of probability.
4. Making decision under uncertainty
5. Dependency & independency.
6. Risk attitude.
7. Utility function.
8. Cycle of decision making
9. Sensitive analysis & revising decision tree
10. Multi-attribute Utility Function |